Super Bowl XXLIII: Cardinals Steel Belted

Finally it is Friday, so I can take a few minutes out to discuss some sports. Of course those of you reading have been exposed to the 'hype' surrounding Super Bowl XXLIII, which will take place on February 1st, in Tampa, FL. I have to admit, it is hard to get up for this one, but I still believe we may be seeing a good game in that we will be seeing a very good offensive squad in the Arizona Cardinals matching up against the dominating Pittsburgh Steelers defense. However, there is a certain quality missing that I just can't put my finger on (perhaps that the Patriots missed the playoffs, the Colts choked again, the Giants could not could not make another run and the Chargers can never seem to close the deal when given the chance).

The Steelers are very deserving of this chance and from the few people I've spoken to, it appears to be a foregone conclusion that they will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy the end of the game. However, isn't the act of conceding the game to what we perceive to be the better team what we (well, those outside of the New York City metro area) thought about last year's game? What about Kurt Warner's last Super Bowl appearance with the Rams in 2001? In this posting, I will discuss my thoughts on how the participants in this year's Super Bowl match up with each other. I will not be name dropping too much, just going over how I feel each squad's scheme of playing will open up opportunities or expose their weaknesses. Then I will do the corny and geeky 'I told you so' score prediction.

There is no doubt about it, the Steelers D is going to be hard to contend with as Arizona's attack is so predicated on the pass. However after careful consideration, I have begun to feel that if running backs Edgerrin James and J.J. Arrington are major components of the game plan early, they may be able to control the clock and keep the Steelers offense off of the field. The obvious peril in holding onto the ball against a team that is as disciplined on defense as the Steelers is that sooner or later they will find a way to create a turnover or the offensive players will have difficulty in maintaining focus during prolonged drives. Just imagine, Arizona starts from its own 25 yard line, meticulously drives all the way down to the Steeler's 15 yard line only to lose a fumble, thrown an interception or victimize themselves with drive killing penalties.

The aforementioned scenarios deflate any offensive unit in the regular season much less one that is playing the Super Bowl. The alternative to 'matriculating the ball down the field', in the words of the great Hank Stram, would be for the Cards to employ the ol' heave ho to Larry Fitzgerald, which worked for them throughout the playoffs against some quality defensive units. However, it is a literally painful fact that the Steelers are different animals when it comes to measuring defensive prowess. The defense has only allowed 12 touchdown passes and has picked off 20 errant or poorly thrown balls. In analyzing the Steelers defense, the operative word is pressure. Pressure is something Kurt Warner has had problems dealing with throughout his career, so it no secret that Pittsburgh will try to rattle him early (hence, the need to lean on the running backs). The Cards will be at their best if they can keep the Steelers off balance and thus, make them predictable in terms of how they plan to defend their offensive attack.

The Steelers yielded 3.3 yards/carry during the regular season, which if one listens to the professional analysts, would seem pretty meager; however, if the Cards even get 3.0 per carry, their playbook could expand to include screen plays, reverses, flea-flickers, throw backs and direct snaps as they could conceivably face 3rd and 4 or 5 if they stay par for the course consistently. Three yards per carry does not spell doomsday for the Cardinals. If they are averaging 2 yards or below per carry, their may be problems; if they are facing in 3rd & 6 or 7 more often than not, they are playing into the Steelers' hands as this is what their defense relies on: enforcing predictability from its opposition. These are the downs where you will see safeties and linebackers such as James Harrison (left) hugging the line of scrimmage and zone-blitz schemes (defensive linemen dropping into coverage) being called by Steelers defensive coordinator, Dick Lebeau in order to counter potential 'hot routes' run by receivers. The Steelers want the Cardinals to account for blitzes by max protecting (i.e. keeping a running back and tight end from releasing into pass routes during the play to block potential blitzers in pass situations) as it will hinder what they do best, which is pass the ball.

Now, as far as the Cardinal defense is concerned, I feel that they may be able to compete with the Steelers so long as they are able to match the physical intensity in the trenches and on the peripheries of play. Although they are a little small up front, they may be able utilize speed in order to gain penetration and limit the Pittsburgh ground attack. If I were in Mike Tomlin's shoes, I'd immediately attempt to test the stoutness of the Cards' defensive line in order to find out how they intend to scheme against my offense. I would like to see the Steelers come out ready to pass the ball as it is more than likely, eight Cardinal defenders will be in 'the box' to defend against the run early. The major ace 'card' in Arizona's favor is that their head coach, Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach, Russ Grimm are well steeped in how the Steelers play offense as they were on their staff for a number of years: Whisenhunt (2001-2006) and Grimm (2000-2006). These coaches know the Steelers' personnel and can push the buttons that need to be pushed in order force quarterback Ben Roethlisberger into errors of judgement when confronted by certain defenses. The Cardinals' secondary is also playing very well and with loads of confidence, but the Steelers receivers (notably, Hines Ward) are notoriously physical blockers; will the corners and safeties be able to get off of blocks in order pursue plays? Blitzing Roethlisberger is a very hard thing for a team to do as he is very adept at keeping broken plays alive and turning them into positive gains. The Cards will need to hold coverage as long as they can when defensing pass plays. If Big Ben wants to run, they should let as that will not beat them...losing assignments while he is scrambling often does however.

Keys: When the Steelers have the ball:

The number one key for the Cardinals on defense is to make sure they stop the run early and do not allow Willie Parker to get outside on running plays; if they are able to keep the play in front of them, safeties such as the under-appreciated Adrian Wilson can support the run. Secondly, they have to be willing to give Roethlisberger those scrambling yards; if he is surrounded by three men before he has committing to running for yardage, that is bad news. The secondary has been playing exceptionally well and they must not only continue their string of effective play, but also step it up. They will have to be physical as TE Heath Miller is a favorite downfield target in Pittsburgh's offense.

The Steelers' number one key on offense is establish the run. So, as I said earlier, I will not be surprised to see Pittsburgh try to spread Arizona's defense out with multiple receiver sets in order to soften them up for the run, which if administered by the Steelers, is done late rather than early (especially when playing with a lead). Willie Parker is the type of running back that cannot be held for an entire game without him making a play or two. It is critical that the Steelers set up the Cardinals with the pass in order to get the running game going provided they are able to get an early lead. Number two, get physical in the passing game. Hines Ward wears out opposing players whether he is blocking them or they are tackling him; as games wear on, those hard don't seem so hard. Get the ball the receivers in space so they can utilize effective blocking in order to turn modest gains into big ones.

Keys: When the Cardinals have the ball

For the Steelers, the first key is simple and many teams have done it before: get to Kurt Warner early. Bringing that extra pass rusher at will throw off his timing and thus cause interceptions or strip sacks. It is imperative to note that the more Warner is hit, the worse he gets (but that's just about any QB). Based on the manner in which the Cardinals worst losses were this season, if they get down or demoralized early, they generally do not recover. The offense, which is primarily one dimensional cannot sustain comebacks as their can be disrupted easily by teams that follow their keys. Secondly, as for dealing with a receiving corps that features three 1,000 yard gainers, the Steelers have to select one player they can live with having a good game. I would suggest that this player is NOT Larry Fitzgerald. If Fitzgerald is neutralized, the opportunity for instant offense via the 'jump-ball' is greatly decreased. I am not scared of Steve Breaston beating me if I am the Steelers. Anquan Boldin is still suffering from a hamstring and in light of the recent dust up with offensive coordinator and his character being questioned, he may have something to prove. We also have not seen how these receivers react to being hit in manner in which the Steelers hit opposing players; I am unsure what the response from Fitzgerald et al will be as I've not seen cornerbacks get physical with him off the line of scrimmage too often. I still think he will be 'Cover 2'd' all day with saftey coverage being rolled over to Fitzgerald's side of the field to assist the cornerback who will be covering him. Boldin can be dealt with via single coverage...heck, if Warner is under duress, he won't have time to get the ball to Boldin.

The Cards' first key is to show no consistency when dealing with Pittsburgh. All of the tendencies they displayed during the regular season and playoffs need to be scrapped. This is why I say that they need to come out and try to run the ball. If it is not the run, short passes such as screens or direct snaps would be sufficient; it would not surprise me to see a little 'Wildcat' being utilized as has been successful for several teams during the regular season. One thing that I would not do if I were Ken Whisenhunt is come out trying to spread the Steeelers defense out...many have tried and few have succeeded; doing so only gives the Steelers more space in which to bring a free pass rusher. Get James involved early and since he is relatively fresh, why not put the ball in his hands? I would not trust Tim Hightower to tote the rock too much as he is a rookie and his style of running exposes the ball, enabling him to be stripped by defenders. He could be utilized in short yardage situations and perhaps in blocking for max protect situations if they should arise. Secondly, get Arrington(pictured) involved in all aspects of the offense similar to how the Philadelphia Eagles use Brian Westbrook. If he is effective, his presence on the field alone will open up opportunities for Fitzgerald to victimize single coverage; if this happens, the entire offensive game plan can be dictated to the defense.

In predicting this game, I cannot overlook the physicality of the Steelers defense, especially in big games. This team answered blow for blow against a hardened Baltimore Raven team I have doubts the Cardinals would even be able to contend with. I have yet to see the Cardinals in a fight for their life as they have gotten their opponents in the playoffs down by many points early and then held on to win. They will be in a serious fight come next Sunday and I do not believe they can go the distance against a well seasoned, playoff tested team. For these reasons, I believe the game may be close early, but turnovers will play a huge role in the Cardinals demise...they should have listened to me. I will take Pittsburgh 27-13. MVP? Who cares?