New England Patriots: Brady's Cassel to Lose?

After such a fun filled week of NFL football complete with no shows by teams who should be prepping for the playoffs (Jets(thanks), Cardinals, Vikings and Eagles) and enough playoff intrigue build up to keep the casual fan interested in the outcome of the games during the last week of the season. I reside in Houston, TX right now and my apartment complex is a 5 minute walk from the front door of Reliant Stadium, yet I have no interest in the Texans...I can't call it...is it because I am a Northeast guy? a Patriot apologist (sort of at least)? I think it stems from the fact that the team never gave their first ever draft pick David Carr, a chance to be successful. As the first face of a new franchise in a city starving for pro-football, I thought Carr would at least warrant competent protection and weapons rather than suffer hit after hit until he became shell shocked, i.e. a QB that expects to be hit so much that he cannot focus on the play in front of him. As a result, the Texans released Carr and shipped second round picks of the 2007 and 2008 NFL Draft plus a swap of 2007 first round picks to the Atlanta Falcons in order to acquire a seldom used back up, Matt Schaub and then signed him to a six year $48 million contract. All of this for a player who had not yet started an entire season. It has not yet been determined if Schaub is a success, but time will tell. Schaub has had injury issues which have prevented him from playing a full regular season, but when he does play, he is effective. This did not stop the fans clamoring for Sage Rosenfels to be the starter whenever he played well in relief or in place of Schaub. At any rate, the Texans will again miss the playoffs in 2008. (no pun intended)

The quarterback situation with the Texans got me thinking about quarterback controversies that are on going in the league right now. One controversy of note has shaped up into a game with heavy playoff implicatons as the Miami Dolphins travel to the Meadowlands to face the N.Y. Jets this weekend. Not only do both teams have playoff berths on the line, it is the return of Chad Pennington to Giants Stadium where he played for the Jets for parts of eight seasons. Why is this significant? Well, he was released by the Jets earlier this year in order to allow them to sign Brett Favre. Jets fans are going crazy over this as Pennington has gone to the 'Fins and put up MVP-like numbers while the man who was supposed to put the Jets over the top in Favre, has struggled mightly all season long. Tavaris Jackson of the Minnesota Vikings had early season struggles before being benched, but it was thought he turned the corner when Gus Frerotte went out three weeks ago with an injury. He has played well, and Jackson led them to two big wins, but after last weeks loss to the Falcons, will the coaching staff turn the duties back over to Gus for that final playoff push? My final QB controversy thought and subject of this article, is currently brewing in the Boston area. Although it is not something that will impact the current season, it WILL dominate the early months of 2009. This is the unique issue the New England Patriots will have to address when discussing their quarterback of the future: Tom Brady or Matt Cassel.

What does a business do when they have an older, yet effective employee that has spurred tremendous growth of the business, bringing it industry-wide respect that is physically prevented from continuing his job? What if the older guy had trained and brought along a younger, albeit less experienced employee who performed more than ably in the older employee's place? What if the business sits in the middle of an economic downturn for the entire country and costs of running the business are a major concern? Is the business sure the younger guy not only continue the course of the business but also grow it? Or is the business better off with steady, well experienced and established hand that ensured success in the past? Sorry for all of the questions, but these are some of the questions posed to the New England Patriots braintrust during the rapidly approaching off season. Tom Brady is the unquestioned face of the franchise that has enamoured football and pop culture fans alike. He has been the consummate teammate (well, according to what I've read or heard), making concessions in salary numerous time in order for the organization to afford putting top talent around him. Brady was an unheralded 6th round pick in the 2000 NFL Draft and he had the unenviable task of replacing a well known and respected veteran QB, Drew Bledsoe, who at the time was in decline and injured via the infamous Mo Lewis hit on the sideline while running for a first down. Brady siezed the opportunity and made the job his, leading the Patriots to their only Super Bowl victory in 2001; over the following 4 seasons, 2 more Super Bowls were won and Brady cemented himself as an NFL legend being the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl (succeeded by Ben Rothlesberger in 2005) and in the company of several great QBs who've won 3 Super Bowls. The resume is impressive to say the least. He added to his list of accomplishments last season by passing for 50 touchdowns and leading the 2007 Patriots to an undefeated regular season. Yes, I know...stop sweating Brady right? Well, the fairy tale of my story ends here.

In the opening minutes of the 2008 regular season, Brady's MCL(medial collateral ligament) and ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) in his left knee were severely injured. Seldom used back up and 2005 7th round draft pick Matt Cassel took over. What has transpired since then casts more than a shadow of doubt over Brady's future with the team. In comparing the stats for both players in their first season as starters the numbers are eerily similar:

*Cassel: Completed 63.8 percent of his passes, 3,270 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a QB rating of 87.1 (so far)

*Brady: Completed 63.9 percent of his passes, 2,843 yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 86.5 rating.

Now just because they are similar does not mean that Cassel is the next Brady; however on the business side of things, if I am Cassel's agent, that is my best weapon in order to procure the best deal possible for my client. There are several factors that work in Cassel's favor: 1) he is an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the season, so he may be able to break the bank, 2) who knows how Brady will react to the surgery and whether the knee will hold up and being that the Patriots have committed so much money to him, how will this affect his status? 3) the new CBA(Collective Bargaining Agreement) between the Players Association and the owners is due to expire following the 2009 season.

Lets hit on factor #1, Cassel can pretty much name his own price as there are a bevvy of sub-par (at best) teams in the NFL right now. Or he will make some serious money in the short term if the Patriots slap the franchise tag on him (average of the top 5 salaries at his position) perhaps even a long term deal if a team comes along and signs him to a long term contract commensurate with the top quarterbacks in the league. He is in a win-win situation financially here. Factor #2 plays significantly in his future; Brady is a high paid player coming off of an injury that more often than not ruins careers in any sport, much less football. If he is not progressing as well as the organization thinks he should, there is a chance, the Patriots will sign Cassel to a long term or short term deal and have him compete with Brady for the top spot for 2009. Now, that is waaaaaay out there, but it is a possibility. Another (and most likley) possibility is that the Patriots let him walk and he goes on to another team after signing a crazy contract. Remember, the Patriots spent a 3rd round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft on rookie QB Kevin O'Connell and could potentially be in line to receive a compensatory 3rd round draft pick in 2010 for Cassel walking. Factor #3: With the new CBA looming many teams are signing their main guys long term in order to prevent them hitting the market during a potentially un-capped salary cap season in 2010. Cassel could easily take respectable money for 2009 and completely bust the market out its seams by signing an uncapped contract with another team in 2010. If I am his agent, maybe sticking with the Patriots for one more year is not that bad of a deal. However, our microwave, instant gratification society may not not allow this.

The Patriots may have information that Brady is progressing well from his injury, but lets be realistic; this is a two year injury. Players generally are not able to gain the explosion they had prior to the injury until at least two years after it ocurred. Carson Palmer, quarterback of the Cincinnatti Bengals took about that same amount of time in order to return to his old self (and same old Bungles). It could be in the Patriots' best interests to make sure an experienced QB that knows their system and has performed well in, be on hand if needed at least until O'Connell is ready to assume the primary back up duties. Brady also had the injury at the worst time as he is scheduled to become a free agent in 2010, that's right, you guessed it...the uncapped year. He has no choice but to come back and be effective...well he actually can leave the game and be Gisele's gopher if he wanted to. The Patriots may seem to be in tough position, but if they manage it right, they can walk away with a quality, in-house trained quarterback either way they turn along with draft picks. Patriots fans are divided as to who the QB or the future for the Patriots should be especially given the eery manner in which Brady, and now Cassel assumed their starting position: by replacing a respected player who was felled by an injury.

So even if you hate the Patriots, this situation bears watching. It carries implications that will affect many players and organizations in light of the salary cap for 2009 and the potentially uncapped year of 2010. Cassel can be constricted by the market in 2009 or be unrestrained in 2010...you do the math.